Sunday, June 28, 2020

Narrative vs Fact

Today I'd like to talk about the fragility of our narrative based political system. The highlighting of this idea by Andrew Cuomo (via a good article by Heather Cox Richardson) tied this together for me.

Per the article; “Cuomo pointed out that the coronavirus highlighted the difference between reality and a narrative based in ideology. "A virus has a rate of increase and a number of deaths either goes up or goes down," he said. “The number of people going to hospitals goes up or goes down. It's not subject to debate because the hospital bed is either empty or it's full, we either bury people or we don't."

"We tested both theories," Cuomo told Cillizza. "We have the evidence. It's numbers. It's irrefutable. Why don't we pause and recognize the undeniable reality of the situation?" "There are no Democratic facts and Republican facts," he said. "There are just facts." *1

Decision making based in fantasy and "stretch goals" have a long history in business and there's a constant struggle between people who understand the realities of what a particular project or undertaking takes, and the executives who are sponsoring the work. Invariably there's a divide, between reality and fantasy versions. And so it goes with a Government of CEOs.

As we move into July we're hitting about the 5th month of US impact of Covid a few things are very clear.

The facts and numbers about Covid overwhelm the conservative's narrative of everything being "OK"- that we should sacrifice some of the living to ensure that business continues to survive, purportedly to ensure that people can work for a living. Except that is only part of the story.
  • It's a fairytale that business leaders and the rich are job creators. Consumers are job creators - they create demand. When demand ebbs, business responds by cutting jobs. When it expands, jobs open up. Jobs don't get "created", they are created to fulfill demand. Yes - business will take advantage of it - and possibly apply capital to it - but many times, so will individual entrepreneurs in business for themselves.
  • There is a fallacy that business is more competent than public service (Government) in taking care of people. Business is fluid. IOn order to survive in the set of rules that govern it, people are a variable to be manipulated. Good government, works with people at the center and manipulates other variables to work for the best personal outcome for the most. See states that enforced lock downs, like Pennsylvania. Fact and evidence-based decision making saved thousands of lives over narrative based decision making which is resulting in huge surges in the wake of "re-opening".
  • That re-opening business means returning to conventional mechanisms - we need to be realistic - we cannot congregate. It results in death. Yes, some businesses will keep their profile but for many the world will change. Lots of restaurants and bars will fail. Black Friday will be held more virtually. Our lives are more focused on our own living spaces. Travel will take time to get back to. Gasoline sales will suffer.
And subsequently, we need to revamp our economy. Sudden change shows how trend based our business has become and we punish those that cannot predict what consumers want. We need to use our understanding of statistics to not only predict what will sell, but to hedge our risk if it doesn't. Businesses need to invest in a government insurance that supplements them in times of uncertainty. That makes us more robust.

We need programs that make sure that people eat and have shelter regardless of the state of our economy. We need education and healthcare that's available and affordable for everyone. We need to stop the narrative based thinking that says there are only winners and losers. We must be in this for everyone. everyone needs to win, at least to the point of human decency.

In the end it comes down to taking care of people. Because there is no economy or business without workers or consumers. There is no government without the consenting governed.

*1 Heather Cox Richardson, Substack, June 26, 2020 https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/june-26-2020

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